Eleven actions required for speedy economic turnaround (Read full details)

Atedo N A Peterside

The Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) is doing some things right, such as the effort to curb overhead expenditures and to be more frugal than past administrations, but then they are also doing many things wrong. There is a reluctance to completely break from the past and embrace significant economic reforms, even when our present predicament clearly warrants same. We are now facing an economic crisis. A crisis is an inflection point.

It is that point when multiple outcomes become possible. 2017 represents the last full calendar year that this administration has within which it must embrace major economic reforms, if it expects to still attain many of the more palatable economic outcomes. It is no use arguing over who or what caused the economic recession (-2 percent growth) and high inflation rate (over 18.5 percent p.a.) that we are currently facing; far better to focus on what we need to do to get us out of this sorry state. There are several units within the FGN that appear to be working hard.

Sadly, most of them are working in “silos” and solving fringe problems. What appears to be still missing is a bold, holistic and audacious effort to harmonize fiscal, monetary, exchange rate, trade and macro-prudential policies in a concerted manner. Very few people want to take on the “big gorilla” in the room. That is why the impact of the FGN’s Economic Management Team is not being felt. Because many fear for their jobs, they are not interested in tackling their colleagues whose actions are negating and/or eliminating the most positive outcomes that the Government owes the electorate. I know that there are those who will criticize me for saying that the FGN’s economic policy direction remains unclear.

My response to them is that the most significant economic reforms embraced so far by FGN came about rather reluctantly i.e. by FGN hanging on to an untenable position until it eventually disentangled itself or got overpowered by its own internal contradictions. We saw this with petrol prices and also the devaluation of the naira. When these “reforms” came, they arrived in the form of half-measures. Thus, we stopped short of full petrol price deregulation and introduced an unsustainable price fix instead. We equally stopped short of adopting truly market-determined exchange rates and instead embraced a “fudge” that spewed widely divergent multiple exchange rates. Half measures typically bring some pain, but often fail (as in this case) to yield any lasting gain.

The rest of this article will discuss ELEVEN major policy actions, which the FGN should consider. We must shake off the indolent mindset that leads us to believe that all Constitutional changes are taboo. Accordingly, I seek to draw attention to the following eleven important items on which major action is still required:-1) The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) should accept that it’s foreign exchange and demand management policies have failed. The more restrictions they have placed on forex repatriation the less likely it has become that badly needed forex inflows from portfolio investors, foreign direct investors and Nigerians will pick up. Privileged access to CBN’s forex allocations has become the best investment game in town for the politically well connected.

Furthermore, the directive to banks to allocate 60 percent of forex to manufacturers, who account for only 10 percent of GDP (including owners of zombie industries which are horribly import-dependent) has exacerbated an already bad supply situation. 40 percent is much too small to accommodate the rest of the economy and so all other sectors (90 percent of GDP) have been crippled. This has unleashed panic thereby sending the parallel market to the high heavens. Forex inflows disappeared partly because of the uncertainty surrounding the ability to repatriate interest/dividends through an overly restrictive 40 percent window. There is no scientific basis for this 60 percent/40 percent rule. Meanwhile it has huge adverse distortionary implications on the supply side.

The end result has been our mind-boggling and widely divergent multiple exchange rates which have spooked investors who have taken fright and also taken flight. Sadly, we have effectively “shot ourselves in the foot” by taking ill-advised actions that crippled both forex inflows and the Service sector in particular (over 50 percent of GDP); 2) Three preceding administrations ended up brokering peace deals with Niger Delta militants. FGN should urgently pursue high-powered negotiations which should be brokered by persons with a healthy track record in this activity and the ancillary pipeline protection business – it can net FGN $6bn a year. In the longer term, I favour a constitutional amendment that reserves a one per cent (1 percent royalty payment to immediate host communities on ALL mining and mineral producing activity (including limestone, oil, precious stones etc.).

Communities will then be well incentivized to keep production activity going. This is preferable to a long-term reliance on amnesty payments, which constitute a moral hazard. A 13 percent derivation payment to a possibly “unaccountable and distant” State Governor does not filter down to host communities; 3) We should simultaneously embark upon some asset sales which improve long-term efficiency and will yield foreign currency. I argued in my 01 October, 2016 published LETTER TO MY COUNTRYMEN that the FGN share of the major Oil Joint Ventures (IOCs) should be sold down to 40% or no more than 49 percent This would represent a replica of the highly successful Nigeria LNG (NLNG) model that provides a healthy dividend stream for the Government. If it is good for NLNG, then it should be good for the IOCs too.

Asset sales can yield $15-20 billion over the course of the next two years if planned carefully; 4) We urgently need to deregulate the entire downstream petroleum sector and also privatise NNPC’s three refineries + depots and pipelines and domestic gas; 5) Our civil/public service is still bloated, corrupt and inefficient and has become the excuse for a privileged 2 percent of the population to consume close to 60-70 percent of the annual budget via the recurrent expenditure vote. Methinks mass redundancies are now inevitable because the nation is stuck with a public service and legislators that we could only afford at $100 per barrel oil prices; 6) Less than 25 percent of our 36 States are economically viable.

The obvious answer is political restructuring, as unpalatable as it may sound to some. In terms of overhead spending, we have to rejig our political structure so that significant overheads are transferred from 36 states to 6 zonal centres. We should keep an open mind towards this political restructuring argument because it is not even true that homogeneity within a State or zone necessarily guarantees peace. Somalia is homogenous and yet it is probably the closest thing there is today globally to a failed State. Conversely, there are communities, States and nations around the world which are heterogeneous, but which are living peacefully together; 7) To help overcome, the social and physical infrastructure deficit, we must embrace the private sector as the engine of growth and a capable partner/financier of infrastructural development. The Power and Transportation sectors are crying for more and not less privatisation. The logic of the power sector reforms was built around the adoption of cost-reflective tariffs, which we have since thrown out of the window.

The transmission sector and gas supply difficulties are some of the other weak links in the power value chain; 8) A dysfunctional legal system is an impediment to the rapid growth of a modern economy. The Chief Justice of the Federation must “buy into” and spearhead radical reform of our legal system; 9) The anticorruption crusade will only complement the positive changes envisaged above if the Government itself respects the rule of law and obeys the Courts. We should err on the side of extending the “benefit of the doubt” to accused persons whenever allegations cannot be proven beyond reasonable doubt. It is better to let four people who might be guilty go free than to convict one innocent man.

The latter drains all the energy out of the anticorruption crusade and also destroys business confidence;10) Restoring business confidence should be the primary preoccupation guiding virtually every statement by public officers. This calls for a paradigm shift because the current preoccupation is for every Minister, Governor, Regulator or overzealous official to threaten investors with closure, bankruptcy, fines or seizure of their goods. Frightened businessmen (local or foreign) will not invest. We should be wooing investors instead of threatening them; 11) FGN should immediately appoint directors to the boards of every regulatory agency. The important lesson from the recent Financial Reporting Council of Nigeria imbroglio is that a single rogue regulator can hold the entire system to ransom, help destroy business confidence and hamper economic growth. This only becomes possible when the checks and balances, which our laws envisaged, through the appointment of Boards, Council members or Commissioners, are not in place.

Conclusion
Our economy is underperforming because, amongst other things, it is caught up in a low foreign exchange trap. Borrowing forex without instituting necessary and badly needed economic and structural reforms is akin to suicide. Those who are canvassing for more foreign debt simply because our debt/GDP ratio is low are overlooking the fact that our debt service ratios are already high. Our debt service ratios are high because our Tax/GDP ratio at 6 percent is exceedingly poor and so it will require a few years of concerted action to raise it significantly. Relying on debt alone to ease the forex trap is therefore a high risk strategy. That is why I also emphasise 2) and 3) above. Nigerians take pride in arguing that the Lord loves us and so he always intervenes by bringing us back from the precipice in the nick of time.

I do not doubt that. What I truly believe is that the Lord intervenes through people. After the unbridled insults that were heaped on the Emir of Kano and a few others who dared to tell the Government the truth about the parlous state of our economy, the easiest path for me would have been to keep quiet or to simply blame speculators, detractors or past regimes. If I did that then the attack dogs would have won. NO, I am not about to abandon my right to free speech on account of some insincere sycophants. I speak because I want my country to improve. So help me God.

Atedo N A Peterside, CON is the President & Founder of ANAP Foundation and is also the Chairman of Stanbic IBTC Holdings Plc and Cadbury Nigeria Plc (Extracted from a Presentation delivered in Abuja on January 19, 2017 at the 14th Daily Trust Dialogue on Beyond Recession: Towards A Resilient Economy)

Eleven actions required for speedy economic turnaround

Entrepreneurs unveil recipes for coping with recession (Read full details)

Entrepreneurs

The current economic recession in Nigeria has slowed down businesses and even led to the closure of many that were not able to cope with the attendant challenges.

This notwithstanding, there are some businesses that are able to weather the storm not because they have sufficient funds more than others but due to their innovative ability and strict adherence to the business processes.

Speaking on the development, the President, Port Harcourt Chamber of Commerce, Industry Mines and Agriculture, (PHCCIMA), and Chief Executive Office, Elshcon Nigeria Limited, Dr. Emi Membere-Otaji, attributed the survival of his businesses to four critical steps taken.

According Otaji, who is also into real estate and healthcare services, the first step was the cutting of costs by dismissing some staff, reducing expenses, as contracts and clientele were bound to reduce as well as reviewing the operational systems and blocking identified leakages.

He said: “We made the workers understand the current global economy and its implication, so we agreed that some staff, who are not very active should go while others do multiple tasks to keep the businesses going.”

He further said the business development unit had to think outside the box by changing some of its procedures, while also refusing to grant credit facilities to some clients to keep the businesses afloat.

“We also reduced our borrowing, due to the galloping in the exchange rate. One of our companies that had dollar denominated loan ran into a problem, but we have sorted that out,” he added.

Otaji expressed optimism that if the federal Government’s economic team reviewed the monetary and fiscal policies positively, and governments at all levels addressed the security challanges across the country, local investment would thrive and jobs created.

On his part, the Chief Executive Officer, Vintage Farms, Mike Elechi, while complaining about the high cost of goods and services, pointed out that consistency and persistence enabled him to remain in business despite the downturn.

Entrepreneurs unveil recipes for coping with recession

Blind student, 59 others win Abia ex-governor’s scholarship prize (Read full details)

A blind second year student of the University of Nigeria Nsukka (UNN), Mr. Ifeanyi Frank Moama was among the 60 second batch beneficiaries of Senator Theodore Orji’s annual tertiary education scholarship scheme for his Abia Central Senatorial constituents.

The beneficiaries were given N100, 000 cheque each at the ex-governor’s constituency office in Umuahia, the state capital.

Chairman of the Scheme Committee and former Local Government Affairs Commissioner in the state, Emma Nwabuko, in his address at the cheque disbursement ceremony, explained that the applications for the award were open to interested undergraduates of the senatorial zone comprising six Local Government Areas(LGAs) who filed their applications online through applications forms accessible from the Senator’s website.

He also directed future applicants to file applications at appropriate time each year adding that his Committee meets to consider, shortlist and interview applicants whose applications were filed online.

Impressed by the online mode of application, the state governor Dr Okezie Ikpeazu in his address directed the state Scholarship Board to liaise with the Committee for the purpose of adopting the online mode of application to select state scholarship beneficiaries.

The governor also directed that 10 young persons in each of the state 17 LGAs will through the online application, be selected for the state scholarship award every year which must include the physically challenged.

He urged the Senator Orji scholarship beneficiaries to justify the award by excelling in their studies and lauded the Senator for endowing the scheme.

Senator Orji who disclosed he was motivated into introducing the scholarship scheme that would subsist as long as he remains a Senator, said: “I wanted something that would be indelible and education came to my mind. Education is what made me and would impact positively on the beneficiaries and enable them to be something in life.

“The first batch of 60 beneficiaries emerged last year and got their cheques. In the four years am in the Senate, not less than 240 would benefit. What the beneficiaries owe me is excelling in their studies. Application for award is open to my constituents, no discrimination by sex, religion or political party affiliation and I shall continue to fund this until I vacate from the Senate.”

Blind student, 59 others win Abia ex-governor’s scholarship prize

Ministers laud strong start to OPEC, non-cartel oil output cuts (Read full details)

An OPEC branded flag sits on a table ahead of the 169th Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting in Vienna, Austria. PHOTO: Akos Stiller/Bloomberg via Getty Images

OPEC and non-OPEC countries have made a strong start to lowering their oil output under the first such pact in more than a decade, energy ministers said on Sunday, as producers look to reduce oversupply and support prices.

“The deal is a success …All the countries are sticking to the deal …(the) results are above expectations,” Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said after the first meeting of a committee set up to monitor the deal.

Ministers said 1.5 million of almost 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) had been taken out of the market already.

Countries involved in the deal could reduce their output by 1.7 million bpd by the end of the month, Interfax news agency quoted Novak as saying.

Eleven of OPEC’s 13 members along with 11 non-OPEC countries have agreed to make cuts for the first half of the year.

OPEC members Nigeria and Libya, both suffering setbacks in production, were given exemptions.

“The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has taken the initiative and other countries took part in very significant actions,” Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih told reporters following the meeting.

“Despite demand usually being lower in the first quarter in winter, the actions taken by the Kingdom and many other countries has impacted the market in a tangible way and we have seen the impact in spot prices,” khalid al-Falih said.

Brent oil prices LCOc1 that fell to $27.10 a barrel a year ago have held above $50 per barrel since OPEC producers agreed on Dec. 10 to lower output in the first half of 2017.

The cuts are aimed at reducing a global glut in oil that has weighed on oil prices for more than two years.

Falih said implementation of agreed cuts had been “fantastic” and he hoped for 100 per cent compliance in February.

“We will not accept anything less than 100 per cent compliance,” Kuwaiti oil minister Essam Al-Marzouq, who chairs the five-member ministerial compliance committee, told a news conference.

The other members of the committee represent Algeria, Venezuela, Russia and Oman.

Venezuela has achieved more than half of its planned 95,000 bpd cut, Oil Minister Nelson Martinez told reporters.

Full compliance could take global oil inventories back close to their five-year average by mid-2017, lowering oil in storage by around 300 million barrels, Falih said.

“There are no surprises so far in terms of demand or supply from other sources so there is no reason for us to suddenly come in January and say we need a bigger reduction or a longer period,” he said.

Saudi Arabia is producing slightly below 10 million bpd and has informed buyers of substantial cuts scheduled for next month, he said.

Russia has cut its oil output by around 100,000 bpd, Novak said, double what was originally planned. He said Russian oil production had averaged around 11.15 million bpd this month.

He told reporters it was too early to talk about extending the current deal beyond the planned six months but that remained an option.

“Everyone sees that the agreements on oil production cuts have already have a positive effect on oil markets. The market has become more stable and predictable,” Novak said.

On Sunday it was agreed that a technical joint committee (JTC) would be created comprising a representative for each of the five members of the monitoring committee and as well as the OPEC presidency, which is currently held by Saudi Arabia.

The JTC will cooperate with the OPEC Secretariat in compiling production data which will be presented to the ministerial monitoring committee by the 17th of every month, OPEC said in a news release.

The monitoring committee will communicate after the 17th of every month and plans two meetings ahead of the next ordinary OPEC meeting in Vienna on May 25.

The next meeting in March is set for Kuwait.

Ministers were also keen to highlight that any increase in high-cost U.S. shale oil production as a result of rising oil prices would be absorbed by rising demand.

“We are not worried that production in the U.S. is increasing as prices go up because I think this will be absorbed by an increase in demand,” Al-Marzouq said.

Qatari Energy Minister Mohammed Al-Sada said with increasing demand “shale oil will all be catered for”.

Russia’s Novak also said he was not worried about higher oil output in the United States.

Ministers laud strong start to OPEC, non-cartel oil output cuts

Oil and local prosperity: A study of ‘two kingdoms’ (Read full details)

PHOTO:AFP

The King of Abonnema has just finished a magnificent building he called his palace. The king of Okpo has done the same – built a palace. But there the similarity ends. Abonnema is one of the major towns among the Kalabari Ijaw; its history is long and illustrious. It has prominent indigenes whose names are well-known to all Nigerians, Wenike Briggs, Ajumogobia, Graham-Douglas, Ferdin and Alabraba, W.W. Whyte, Mr. Justice Adolphus Karibi Whyte (SCJ), Odoliyi Lolomari (Ex-MD, NNPC), Olu Fubara, Ambassador D.D. Obunge, Admiral Bob Manuel, Chief Lulu Briggs, Dr. Dodiyi Manuel, Capt. Briggs (Ex-Minister of Transport), Capt. Ajumogobia, Chief S.K Dagogo Jack (Ex-INEC chairman), Deputy Comptroller of Customs, Bibi Akpana, Tom Fabyan (former chief executive of African Petroleum), L.M. Jacks (Permanent Secretary, Internal Affairs), Miss World (Agbani Darego); Miss Nigeria (Syster Jack), and many others.

Okpo, on the other hand, is a small village which many years ago you would have passed even before you blink once. It is part of Obuama or Harry’s town which is regarded as a small village in the pantheon of Kalabari Ijaw towns. So Okpo is a small village of a small village.

A few years ago, some oil companies did some seismic work in Okpo village. In doing so, they brought in a lot of equipment, reclaimed large tracks of land, and employed hundreds of people – thus awakening a small dot of a village into a potential metropolis. The seismic activity ended and the oil company packed up and left. Chief Diamond Bob Manuel Tobin–West saw his opportunity in this substantial real estate, substantial compensation for the seismic activities from a company with a lively corporate social responsible mentality. The people of Okpo were compensated. Instead of Chief Diamond taking his own share of the money to Port Harcourt to build a beautiful house and or a hotel, he decided to return to the spot and there restart and rebuild his community. The Chief is a man who lives by example. He is a graduate from UK and Canada: has a family well settled in these countries.

Chief Diamond built himself a palace in the old seismic site. He encouraged his people to return and follow his example. He built a complex of six houses; his brothers and sisters are in the process of completing modern structures, with roads and amenities – water, electricity, schools, etc. This year’s Christmas and New Year celebration in his palace had all trappings of modernity, complete with carols, fireworks, plenty of food and drinks. There is a clinic nearby. He has galvanised all the villages around him and a modern metropolis is taking shape in a formerly one – blink village. His neighbours in the bigger town of Obuama are beginning to recognise his worth and influence and constantly visit him to talk about the progress of Okpo and the surrounding area. Incidentally, the Deputy Governor of Rivers State, Mrs. Harry Banigo is from Obuama. So is Chief Ombo Harry, once Executive Director, Finance of NNPC. The former Chairman of PDP Rivers State, Marshall Harry, the former Deputy Speaker of Rivers State House of Assembly, another Harry and so on are from Obuama- None of the above has what the vision of Chief Diamond who hopes to build a true metropolis in this forsaken enclave.

People like Diamond are the types the oil companies and governments should seek out – people with vision – his neighbours from the bigger town of Obuama are constantly ribbing him that he is a king of five houses. He smiles and says he alone has six; by this time next year there would be over 200 with an economic infrastructure that may surpass the bigger neighbour. He plans holiday resorts, extensive fishing and agricultural projects, a resurgence of Kalabari culture and civilisation – both issues of which he is an expert.
Diamond’s father grounded his upbringing in the culture of the Ijaw Kalabari: much of that culture is in the masquerades, songs and drums played by the Sekiapu Ogbo of which Chief Diamond is the head.

The Sekiapu (dancers) are the custodians of Ijaw culture: they have their own hierarchy, monopolise the dancing and all cultural activities of Kalabari, have a legal system and the power of enforcement; they are unafraid to confront chiefs because traditionally you cannot be an Ijaw Kalabari chief without first being a member of the Sekiapu Ogbo. They beat the drums for the masquerades, for the various houses of chiefs; they perform nearly all the traditional judicial and cultural functions. No chief goes against Sekiapu because they can place a curse on your house and that household or family is as good as finished.

Every chiefly household has a peculiar song or beat which, when the drummer begins to call the names of the chief’s ancestors, that chief has to acknowledge the call and point to the direction of his homestead. Diamond was trained by his father in these drums and their meaning. It is like the Oriki of the Yoruba, or the Opi (flute) of the Igbo. As the Oriki of your family and father’s Kin etc. is being recited, a true Yoruba knows the words by heart and sings and dances to his ancestor’s praises. The same is true of the Opi flutists of the Igbo. It is impossible to understand your culture if you do not know the meanings of the songs and history of your people; if you cannot follow the flutist or the Oriki. Indeed, if you do not, the flutist or the Oriki poet has a way to tell everyone that an impostor is in their midst!! Among the Ijaw Kalabari, the drummers, on seeing that you have not acknowledged your tradition or history or culture, such as in the beat of the drum, the drummer starts abusing you that you have no ears, your ears are mere leather!! Diamond’s father was also a master craftsman of the heads of the various masquerades which belong to each house.

The central notion of this piece is to counter the view that oil itself and its exploitation destroy the people. In Okpo the king and his chiefs made money from oil, started a restructuring and rebuilding of their community with clear goals and plans.

In Akulga Local Government too, of which Abonnema is the headquarters, the various oil companies prospecting there, in response to their corporate responsibility have given millions of naira to the Amayanabo (head), a First Class chief, and other chiefs. These moneys are simply divided among some of the chiefs: It would have been good if the Council of Chiefs had savings and development accounts from money collected. There should be projects to which the money is dedicated. This was the same Council, which a few years before, contributed large sums of money for the building of boys and girls secondary schools, lobbying for a general hospital, water works, electricity and so forth.

At the moment the water works built by the Swedish company, Scanwater, have broken down, the general hospital has been closed and its buildings swallowed by elephant grass, no staff at the hospital, yet every month the chiefs dress up in the traditional regalia to grace one function or the other. The chiefs are in danger of losing all control of the youth who are now wild and prefer cultism and militancy.

The chiefs of Akukutoro should devote a little of their money to improvement of the town (the electricity bill of the whole town of Abonnema is paid by the chairman of the local government – I am not sure of the legitimacy of this action).

Matters are coming to a head now when the head of the Sekiapu has asked the king to step aside because he was accused of witchcraft. That is a serious charge among the Ijaw Kalabaris – and demands immediate steps to cleanse himself of the charge. It is unclear today who has the right or power to make such demands.

Oil money in one community is used progressively. Oil money in another community is not used progressively leading to endless disputes, intrigues and lawsuits. It is not the money from oil that is bad. It is the use to which people put that money.

Oil and local prosperity: A study of ‘two kingdoms’

‘2018 World Cup draw will hold in Kremlin December 1’ (Read full details)

Russia's deputy prime minister Vitaly Mutko (L), who also serves as the president of the Russian Football Union, and UEFA President Aleksander Ceferin attend the launch of the Saint Petersburg's logo for the Euro 2020 football tournament in Saint Petersburg on January 19, 2017. The EURO 2020 UEFA European Championship will see matches hosted in 13 cities across Europe, with the semi-finals and final staged at Wembley Stadium in London in July 2020.<br />Olga MALTSEVA / AFP

Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister, Vitaly Mutko, has revealed the draw for the 2018 World Cup is set to take place in the Kremlin on December 1.

The date was already known but the confirmation of the venue – the official residence of Russian President, Vladimir Putin, in the heart of Moscow – underlines the significance of the World Cup to the Russian government.

According to Russia’s main news agency, TASS, Mutko announced the news during a meeting with Russian Prime Minister, Dmitry Medvedev.

The 58-year-old Mutko stepped down as sports minister in October, but he was the chairman of Russia’s successful World Cup bid and is still the president of the Russian Football Union. He is also a former president of Russia’s richest football team, Zenit Saint Petersburg.

“This proposal suited FIFA and we are already in preparations for the draw,” he said.

These comments come a day after the Mail on Sunday reported that FIFA president, Gianni Infantino, last year asked Mutko, a member of the FIFA Council, to quit football because of his alleged involvement in Russia’s state-sponsored doping programme.

Mutko, however, has always denied any wrongdoing, blaming others further down the chain of command, and told TASS the British newspaper report was “silly” and remains on good terms with Infantino.

‘2018 World Cup draw will hold in Kremlin December 1’

The IDP camp bombing accident (Read full details)

IDP

The tragedy of brutal displacement faced by some Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) caught in the ongoing war against Boko Haram in North East of Nigeria was further complicated last Tuesday when a Nigeria Air Force jet accidentally bombed their camp in Renn, Kala/Bage Local Government Area of Borno State.

This is sad and the hearts of all Nigerians bleed for the victims. It is one of the ugly fallouts of a situation in which Nigeria has had to go to war to maintain the territorial integrity of the country. The Nigerian Army and the Air Force have been in the forefront of the campaign to secure the borders, which has been seriously challenged by terrorists. Happily, the insurgents have been largely dislodged by the nation’s defence forces.

While the pain from last Tuesday’s accident is unbearable and the tears of all Nigerians rend the heart, this fatal error should be understood within the wider context of an ongoing war.

Already described by the President and Commander-in-Chief of the Nigeria Armed Forces, Muhammadu Buhari, as an ‘operational mistake,’ the accident took the lives of nearly one hundred persons including aid workers. Casualties included some displaced persons, soldiers and aid workers of the International Committee of Red Cross (ICRC) and Medicines Sans Frontiers (MSF). It is indeed an irony of fate that these men and women who risked their lives to help and save souls in the war-torn area have had their lives terminated in the circumstances of the bombing error. It is highly regrettable. Fittingly, President Buhari has expressed ‘sadness and regret over the incident’, condoled with the families of the dead and wished the ‘wounded divine succor, leading to full recovery.’ All over the country, there has, understandably, been shock, sorrow and sadness over a misjudgment that led to the nation’s troops killing the same people they had liberated from the clutches of bloodthirsty scoundrels of the Boko Haram sect.

Giving a background to the unfortunate incident, the Theatre Commander of Operation Lafiya Dole, Major-General Lucky Irabor, had said reports reached the military command that some terrorists had gathered at Kala/Balge. Their objective was to cause further mayhem in the liberated territory. The order was then given for the air force component of the military to go and address the problem through aerial bombardment. A military jet took off and soon rained bombs on the site believing that a gathering of terrorists was being attacked. Unfortunately, the target was wrong. Instead of terrorists, the bombs landed on the camp of hapless victims of war, men, women and children who were already at their wits’ end in the harsh environment of displaced peoples’ camp life. To their credit, the response of the military, the Federal and the Borno State governments have been prompt and swift.

Such accidents can be said to be part of operational hazards in time of war and by no stretch of the imagination can anybody claim that the bombing was deliberate. Definitely, it was an error, either tactical or human, avoidable though it may be. The Nigerian Air Force has conducted about 4000 sorties in the course of the fight against Boko Haram, thereby dislodging the insurgents from the notorious Sambisa Forest. Naturally, this feat deserves commendation, which cannot be denied, even with this error. Indeed, Nigerians must look beyond last Tuesday to pass judgment on the nation’s gallant men and officers who have borne the physical brunt of the war.

Having made this observation, it is only appropriate to invite the military High Command along with the Presidency to investigate the cause of the error. This of course should be routine as part of learning and strategising against the future. The error as earlier observed could have been tactical or human. Whatever it is, the results of the investigation will ensure that such mistakes are not made again.

Was there failure of intelligence? Were the proper coordinates given to the pilots? Was the weather inclement, forming a fog to limit visibility? Did the terrorists deliberately relocate to the fringes of the IDPs’ camp in order to precipitate such a tragedy? Answers to all of these will be given by the investigation and it is re-assuring that the Commander of Operation Lafiya Dole has told the nation that the ‘issue will be investigated to ascertain what went wrong’.

It is on record that the Air Force has been upgraded in recent times after many years of neglect by previous administrations. This is good for the morale of the men of the NAF. Modern equipment including sophisticated attack systems that have been procured should be properly deployed. Proper and continuous training in modern warfare should also be encouraged considering the fact that the guerilla tactics of the terrorists need to be constantly reevaluated and contained. The error in Renn is too costly. It is one Nigeria should never have to endure again.

The IDP camp bombing accident